Ever since the pandemic started in early 2020, one thing that polarised society was the severity of covid19. On one extreme were people who panicked over getting infected, and on the other were people who considered it as another spell of flu. What is the truth? Now that we have loads of data, it should be easier to find it out.
What is risk?
There are multiple definitions for the word risk. One of them, more technical, we have seen earlier. It is the product of the likelihood of something to happen and the consequence. The second one is from the oxford learner’s dictionary. The possibility of something bad happening at some time in the future; a situation that could be dangerous or have a bad result.
Who was right?
At the moment, both parties had reasons to believe in what they thought – it was risky to some and not to others. In other words, the risk was not the same for everybody. Look at the wealth of data collected by the CDC on cases in the US.
| Age group | Total | 18-29 | 40-49 | 50-64 | 65-74 | 75-84 | 85+ |
| % in population | 100 | 16.4 | 12.3 | 19.2 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 2 |
| % infected | 100 | 21.7 | 14.4 | 18.5 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.7 |
| % died | 100 | 0.8 | 4 | 17.6 | 22.1 | 26 | 27.7 |
| population (estimated) | 330 | 54.1 | 40.6 | 63.4 | 31.7 | 16.2 | 6.6 |
| no of infected (mln) (estimated) | 70 | 15.2 | 10.1 | 13 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 1.2 |
| no of deaths (estimated) | 0.85 | 0.007 | 0.034 | 0.15 | 0.19 | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| infection rate (%) | 21.2 | 28.1 | 24.8 | 20.4 | 14.8 | 14.3 | 18 |
| death rate! (%) | 0.26 | 0.01 | 0.09 | 0.25 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 3.3 |
| death/death18-29 (any) | 1 | 7 | 19 | 47 | 109 | 284 | |
| death/death18-29 (infected) | 1 | 7.5 | 26 | 90 | 213 | 441 |
Risks are not equal. Take some absolute numbers: the chance of someone dying of covid 19 (entire 2020-21) was about 0.25%. That doesn’t tell the whole story – for an 85-year-old, it is 3.3%. Another way is to calculate the chance of dying after getting infected. Overall it is ca. 1.2%, but for an 85+, it is ca. 20%!
Another type of risk estimate is relative to a younger age group. The relative risk is ca. 300 for an 85+ (any) of dying of covid, whereas once infected, the relative risk of dying is ca. 450.
You are wrong, it’s not flu
Society is connected. Calculating risks based on the least-risky age group is not the way to understand a contagious disease. Once a least-risky person comes home (or a care home), he has every chance of passing it to elders, whose risk was at least two orders of magnitude higher than the giver. For a modern society based on care-for-others, this is not a behaviour to be proud of.
Infectious diseases will come and go. Scientists will also find out cures for present and future pandemics. But, what is sure to remain untreated is human irrationality and ignorance of risks and asymmetry of life.
Demographic trends of cases and death: CDC
Trends in cases: CDC
Risk of Covid19: CDC
