Think about this game. There is a 1 in 1000 chance of winning a prize of 1 billion. The price of the ticket is $1. Will you take the gamble? Definitely, it is a good deal to buy the ticket. You only lose a dollar but get a chance to win a billion (expected value of a million).
Pascal used a similar argument to state that belief in god was a better deal than not doing so. He argues:
Proposition 1: God exists
Proposition 2: God doesn’t exist
If god exists and you believe, the payoff is infinitely good
If god exists and you don’t believe, the payoff is much worse
On the other hand, if god doesn’t exist, regardless of whether you believe in it or not, the payoffs (positive and negative) are finite. So, he argues, believing is a better deal.
| God exists (G) | God does not exist (¬G) | |
| Belief (B) | infinite gain | finite loss |
| Disbelief (¬B) | infinite loss | finite gain |
Based on the payoff matrix, there is only one rational (!) decision: choose B.
Pascal’s wager: Wiki
PHILOSOPHY – Religion: Pascal’s Wager: Wireless Philosophy
