Each year, the NBA teams recruit the best available talents – from colleges in the US or from overseas – through a process known as the draft. A draft order determines which team can choose first, second etc. Let’s divide the recruitment process into four stages.
Order teams
The 30 teams in the NBA are ordered in the reverse order of regular season record – the worst takes place 1, and the best gets place 30.
Draft Lottery
The top 14 of the previous list (remember: the worst 14 of the regular season) are eligible for the draft lottery. These 14 teams are the ones who miss out on the playoffs, i.e., 30 total – 16 playoffs = 14 remaining. The lottery is only to determine the top 4 picks. The 14 teams get probabilities of winning the lotteries based on where in the list they are.
| Team | Probability |
| 1 (the last) | 14.0% |
| 2 | 14.0% |
| 3 | 14.0% |
| 4 | 12.5% |
| 5 | 10.5% |
| 6 | 9.0% |
| 7 | 7.5% |
| 8 | 6.0% |
| 9 | 4.5% |
| 10 | 3.0% |
| 11 | 2.0% |
| 12 | 1.5% |
| 13 | 1.0% |
| 14 | 0.5% |
For example, here is the list for 2023 with the names and their respective probabilities.
| Team | Win | Probability |
| Pistons | .207 | 14.0% |
| Rockets | .268 | 14.0% |
| Spurs | .268 | 14.0% |
| Hornets | .329 | 12.5% |
| Trailblazers | .402 | 10.5% |
| Magic | .415 | 9.0% |
| Pacers | .427 | 6.8% |
| Wizards | .427 | 6.7% |
| Jazz | .451 | 4.5% |
| Mavs | .463 | 3.0% |
| Bulls | .488 | 1.8% |
| OKC | .488 | 1.7% |
| Raptors | .500 | 1.0% |
| Pelicans | .512 | 0.5% |
You may notice a slight variation in the chances. That happens whenever two or more teams tie (same win%); the probabilities are added and divided equally (if the sum is odd, the division hands a slight advantage to one of the teams).
Picks 5 – 14 and 15-30
The 11 teams that missed out on the four lottery picks will get to pick players as per their order in the list. It means the No. 1 team on the list, if that misses all four lots, is guaranteed the No. 5 spot. The same goes for the 16 playoff teams – they get to choose 16 candidates (as No. 15-30). This concludes round 1.
Picks 31-60
The entire second round (No. 31-60), is determined by reverse order of regular season record.
The statistics of the lottery is in the next post
