We have discussed this in the past – the total fertility rate of Indian women had slipped past the magic number of 2.1 a couple of years ago. It is not a surprise to those who followed history; continuation of progress that started sometime in 1960 (look at the constant slope of decline until recently). So, are you saying that the overall population in India is declining? Well, I did not say that, and it will not happen for another 20-25 years due to the increase in life expectancy and the need to fill the gaps in the age funnel in the coming years.
Then, how do you interpret the recent proposal for a population control law in India? To those who are confused: it is not a law to encourage people to have more children, as the data-backed decision-maker in you may be thinking! It is about the opposite – more likely, a rule to restrict the number of children per woman to a fixed one (perhaps two).
Let’s consider the possible reasons behind such a move by the government.
Irrationality of mind
Start with our favourite logical fallacy, i.e., availability bias. Just picture a Muslim mother with seven children walking on the street. Isn’t it fitting to the stereotype? Pew research report proved this is far from the truth. The fertility of Indian Muslim women reached 2.6 in 2015 and has been declining faster than any other religion! You may be wondering why I used the image of a Muslim woman. You will see it at the end. To those who want a more neutral example, how about this: the picture of a million people getting out at the landmark of Mumbai, the Chhatrapati Shivaji Terminus?
The Claim Instinct
We have seen the fallacy of the much-celebrated one-child policy of China. The story is no different. If you missed clicking the earlier link, this is your second chance to click on the all-important plot at the Gapminder website. Almighty leaders like to leave such legacies; population control offers one occasion.
The realpolitik
It is typical for far-right politics to find an enemy in their territory and marginalise them based on their state of living. That is their tried and tested model of survival among their supporters. In India, it is the Muslims that fit the bill.
The solution
Enforcement of child control is not a solution to the population problem in a democratic modern society. If you think a community is lagging, bring them into the mainstream and not alienate them further.
National Family Health Survey, India
Factfulness, Hans Rosling
