If ‘moneyline’ is the term used in American betting, it’s ‘fractional odds’ for the UK. So, for today’s premier league match between Chelsea and Everton, the following are the odds.
| Home | Draw | Away |
| 14/19 | 10/3 | 19/5 |
This means that if you bet on home, i.e., Chelsea (the match is played in Chelsea’s backyard) and win, you get a profit of £14 for every £19 placed. In other words, you bet £19 and get back £14+£19 = £33.
As before, let’s estimate the implied probability based on the (fair) expected value assumption.
E.V = p x 14 – (1-p) x 19 = 0
14p + 19p – 19 = 0
p = 19/(14 + 19) = 0.576 = 57.6%
As a shortcut: for 14/19, p = 1/[(14+19)/19].
And for the next two
Draw: p (10/3) = 1/[(10+3)/3] = 0.231 = 23.1%
Away (Everton win): p (19/5) = 1/[(19+5)/5] = 0.208 = 20.8%
As expected, the sum of probabilities is not 100% but 101.5%; the house must win.
