It is critical to decide on the objective of visiting a casino – for fun or to make money. If it’s for fun, you can stop reading this post, go to a casino, and have fun. If it’s for making money, the rest of the post is for you.
Gambling is a business whose objective is to make money – pay off the cost of operations and make some profit. Therefore, it is structured to keep the overall odds in its favour. Since it doesn’t care about the individuals in the process, gamblers have opportunities to have fun, get some money if lucky, etc.
Look at the math and business of the Roulette game:
There are multiple types of bets one can make, and one of them is red-black. You bet 1 dollar on a red; if you get a red, you make a dollar; if black, you lose your money.
Look at the above picture. There are 18 reds in a total of 38 numbers, and your chance to get a red is 18 in 38 (or 18/38). The chance you lose your 1 dollar is 20 in 38 (20/38).
Overall expected profit for you is equal to:
chances of your win x prize you win – chances of your loss x price you lose = (18/38)x(1) – (20/38)x(1) = – 0.0526.
About 5.3 cents per 1 dollar goes to the casino, which is their profit.
Now you change the betting type and say the first 12 for a dozen. In this bet, you will get 2 dollars for every dollar. Your chance of getting in the first 12 is 12/38; for not getting, it is 26/38. If you work out the math, you will get (12/38)x(2) – (26/38)x(1) = – 0.0526.
Take another type that is betting on a single number (straight up). The prize for a win is 35 dollars for every dollar. And the expected returns? (1/38)x(35) – (37/38)x(1). No marks for guessing: 5.3 cents per 1 dollar goes to the casino!
Does that tell you that you will never make money in gambling? You may make money sometimes, and that is where your purpose of visiting makes the difference. If your goal is to make money, you have a problem, as the game is designed for the casino to make money. Or the odds are stacked against you. It is okay if it is for pure fun, as any luck you may get becomes a bonus. It also means that the longer you play, the higher the chance of you losing money as you slowly regress to the mean. The same is true if you place multiple bets simultaneously; it accelerates your chances of reaching the mean, which is biased against you. Since the game never stops, the casino will manage to match their odds in the end.
