Intuitive decision making, also known as naturalistic decision making (NDM), is often associated with experts. The scope of intuition ranges from the ultra-fast recollection of what was memorised before to simple gut feeling. It is essential, at this stage, to differentiate between intuition from heuristics (simple rules of thumb) and probabilistic estimation.
Firefighters and chess players are the favourite examples of the proponents of intuition. It is also a trait associated with people in creative fields. Grand master-level chess players can identify almost all the possible moves fast. Similarly, an experienced firefighter manoeuvres her actions effortlessly in times of crisis. A third example can be an F1 champion making an overtake and avoiding collision at 300 km/h speed! One thing common to all three experts is the number of hours they spend on practises. Let’s analyse these cases one by one.
A chess player or any other performing person, be in sports or arts, can not get help from a decision-making tool (e.g. a computer) during the act. So, irrespective of whether intuition is the best method or not, using the head remains the only option.
The firefighter does not have the time to perform a quantitative evaluation of each of the options she may have. Also, there is no guarantee that estimation is even possible in highly uncertain conditions. So they resort to recognising the patterns around them and applying the appropriate techniques from the hundreds they had encountered in their training and experience.
So intuition, that way, is restricted to those experts who have either no choice or no time. But for a doctor, a judge or a teacher, the situation is different. They have access to data, and support systems are available to collect and interpret more data. In such cases, more than their experience, the ability to avoid biases, acceptance of ignorance, and learner mindset are more valuable.
The final group include investment advisors, sports analysts and political commentators. They are experts who take pride in their experience and intuition. In reality, they work in fields filled with high levels of uncertainty, and, more often, their rates of success are no better than pure chances!
Daniel Kahneman and Gary Klein, “Conditions for intuitive expertise: a failure to disagree”, American Psychologist 64(6):515-26
