The risk of dying due to Covid was something that we discussed in the past. We observed (in October last year) that the absolute risk of death from covid was about 0.2 – 0.3%. Note that this is not the case-fatality ratio but the chance to die from Covid in a population. These values come from countries that are known for robust death registration systems. Also, the nations that were fully cut off from the rest of the world (e.g. New Zealand, Australia, China) during the first few phases of the pandemic were not considered.
This week The Lancet has published, by far, the most expensive data analysis on excess mortality attributed to Covid 19. Excess mortality is the difference between the number of deaths (all-cause mortality) during the pandemic (observed or estimated) and those expected from the past trends. The data used in the study included all-cause mortality data from various databases (global, regional and country-level) and empirical assessments.
18 million deaths in 2 years
The study reports that 18 million people had lost their life due to Covid in the first two years of the pandemic. That is about three times the official figures. There are about 56 million deaths occur in a year. Therefore, 18 mln in two years represents about 16%.
You can see from the plot that the 100-600 (deaths per 100,000 population) band enclosed most of the countries. The most notable outlier is China which, as per reports, have taken extreme measures to control the disease from spreading. The global average death rate is ca. 290 (without including China).
Another way of expressing the statistics of death rates is using a box plot.
Reference
Estimating excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic analysis of COVID-19-related mortality, 2020–21: The Lancet
