Here we continue and determine the probability of winning one of the craps moves, the pass line bet. Let’s summarise the ways of winning (and losing) and the corresponding payoffs.
| Dice Roll | Payoff | Probability |
| 7 or 11 (come-out win) | 1 | P7 + P11 |
| 2, 3, or 12 (come-out loss) | -1 | P2 + P3 + P12 |
| Point 4 win | 1 | P4*P4/7 |
| Point 5 win | 1 | P5*P5/7 |
| Point 6 win | 1 | P6*P6/7 |
| Point 8 win | 1 | P8*P8/7 |
| Point 9 win | 1 | P9*P9/7 |
| Point 10 win | 1 | P10*P10/7 |
| Point 4 loss | -1 | P4*P7/4 |
| Point 5 loss | -1 | P5*P7/5 |
| Point 6 loss | -1 | P6*P7/6 |
| Point 8 loss | -1 | P8*P7/8 |
| Point 9 loss | -1 | P9*P7/9 |
| Point 10 loss | -1 | P10*P7/10 |
The notations are:
P7 = probability of getting a 7
P4/7 = probability of getting a 4 over 7 (in the second throw, after getting a 4 in the first throw) etc.
The probability of winning a point 4 is the joint probability of winning 4 in the first roll and the probability of getting 4 (and not 7) in the second. Let’s calculate each of these probabilities using the reference table.
| Dice Roll | Probability | % |
| 2 | 1/36 | 2.78 |
| 3 | 2/36 | 5.56 |
| 4 | 3/36 | 8.33 |
| 5 | 4/36 | 11.11 |
| 6 | 5/36 | 13.89 |
| 7 | 6/36 | 16.67 |
| 8 | 5/36 | 13.89 |
| 9 | 4/36 | 11.11 |
| 10 | 3/36 | 8.33 |
| 11 | 2/36 | 5.56 |
| 12 | 1/36 | 2.78 |
A sample calculation goes like this: The probability of point 4 is P4 (8.33) multiplied with chances of 4 over 4 or 7 (8.33/(8.33 +16.67)). I.e., 8.33*8.33/(8.33 +16.67) = 2.78. Similarly, the probability of losing a point 4 = P4 (8.33) x chance of 7 over 4 or 7 (16.67/(8.33 +16.67)).
| Dice Roll | Payoff | Probability | Return |
| 7 or 11 (come-out win) | 1 | 16.67 + 5.56 = 22.23 | 22.23 |
| 2, 3, or 12 (come-out loss) | -1 | 2.78 + 5.56 + 2.78 = 11.12 | -11.12 |
| Point 4 win | 1 | 8.33*8.33/(8.33+16.67) = 2.78 | 2.78 |
| Point 5 win | 1 | 11.11*11.11/(11.11+16.67) = 4.44 | 4.44 |
| Point 6 win | 1 | 13.89*13.89/(13.89+16.67) = 6.31 | 6.31 |
| Point 8 win | 1 | 13.89*13.89/(13.89+16.67) = 6.31 | 6.31 |
| Point 9 win | 1 | 11.11*11.11/(11.11+16.67) = 4.44 | 4.44 |
| Point 10 win | 1 | 8.33*8.33/(8.33+16.67) = 2.78 | 2.78 |
| Point 4 loss | -1 | 8.33*16.67/(8.33+16.67) = 5.55 | -5.55 |
| Point 5 loss | -1 | 11.11*16.67/(11.11+16.67) = 6.67 | -6.67 |
| Point 6 loss | -1 | 13.89*16.67/(13.89+16.67) = 7.58 | -7.58 |
| Point 8 loss | -1 | 13.89*16.67/(13.89+16.67) = 7.58 | -7.58 |
| Point 9 loss | -1 | 11.11*16.67/(11.11+16.67) = 6.67 | -6.67 |
| Point 10 loss | -1 | 8.33*16.67/(8.33+16.67) = 5.55 | -5.55 |
| Overall | 100 | -1.41 |
No surprise, the house wins; at 1.43%
