Ecological Fallacy – What Radelet Saw

Michael Radelet’s study in 1981 is an example of ecological fallacy but, more importantly, exposed the racial disparity that existed in the process of ensuring criminal justice in the US.

Radelet collected data from 20 counties of Florida indictments of murders that occurred in 1976 and 1977. His research team have identified 788 homicide cases, and after cleanup of incomplete information, 637 remained for further investigation.

Ecology

Let us start with the overall results: the race composition of the death penalty is 5.1% (17 death penalties out of a total of 335 defendants) for blacks and 7.3% (22 out of 302). There is nothing much in it, or if you are right-leaning with a bit of vested interest, you might even say the judges are more likely to hand death penalties to the whites!

The details

Now, what happens to justice if the victims were white? If the person died in the case was white, there is a 16.7% chance for the black defendants to get a death sentence vs 7.7% for a white. On the other hand, if the person murdered was back, the percentages are 2.2 for blacks and 0 for whites. Black lives were priced lower, and whites seemed to have some birth rights to take out some of it!

The complete dataset is below; you may do the math yourself.

# CasesFirst degree
indictments
Sentenced
to Death
Non-Primary
White victim
Black defendant635811
White defendant15112419
Non-Primary
Black victim
Black defendant103566
White defendant940
Primary
White victim
Black defendant310
White defendant134733
Primary
Black victim
Black defendant166510
White defendant840
Total63737139

Radelet, M.L.; Racial Characteristics and the Imposition of the Death Penalty, American Sociological Review, 1981, 46 (6), 918-927