In an ideal world, our activities should result in about 2 tonnes of CO2 emissions per person per year, but in reality, it is 70 tonnes for the top 1% and less than 1 for the bottom 50%
The new Oxfam report starkly reminds us of the global disparity in consumption-based CO2 emissions and how the Paris Effect may impact the low-income 50%. The report presents a collection of data and future realisations, but I will not go through all of them.
In one of my previous posts, I commented about the present total CO2 emissions, around 47 billion tonnes in 2018 (Gt/yr). Oxfam report estimates the consumption-based emission to be about 35 Gt in 2015. The emission rate we need to target for 2030 is 18 GtCO2 to stay on course with the 1.5 oC target. Before we jump into the report details, take a stop for a quick recap of climate targets.
The global mean temperature has now reached about 1 oC above the pre-industrial level; the world needs to keep its peak to about 1.5 oC to manage catastrophic climate change. In other words, the world can only emit a total of 420 – 580 Gt, as per the IPCC special report (SR 15), which is already three years old! So what remains with us to spend from today is less than 500 billion tonnes (carbon budget). There are different pathways to achieve the goal, and one of them is to cut the emissions by half by 2030 and net-zero emissions by 2050.
Back to the report: today’s total global consumption-based carbon emission is 35 GtCO2 – 17 from the top 10%, 15 from the middle 40% and a mere 3 from the bottom 50%! The per capita emissions are
21 tonnes per person for top 10%
5 tonnes per person for middle 40%
< 1 tonne per person for bottom 50%
Note that the top 10% is already trending at the total target of 2030 (18 GtCO2). The report estimates the expected reduction of the richest and the middle to be about 10%, which is much lower than the 90% and 57% required to reach parity (everyone shares the same per capita emissions).
The Paris Effect and its gaining traction in the developed world can lead to another moral failure of the equity principle. As we have seen in the distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, the morally agnostic twins, capitalism and technology, parented by populism and mistrust, will again fail to support the marginalised. Forcing emission cuts across the board will disproportionately impact the poor and widen the existing wealth and opportunity gaps. There must be additional climate finance, with a fair share from the top emitters, not just countries but also individuals beyond borders, to support the lower and middle-income groups to achieve the climate targets. Innovators, especially from the developing world, should also use this opportunity and focus more on inclusive low-carbon technologies.
IPCC Special Report
Oxfarm Report on Carbon Inequality
Paris Agreement
