Here is another one: Three prisoners are waiting to be executed in a few days. The authorities have selected one of them at random to be pardoned, and the warden knows who.
One of the prisoners, prisoner A, begs the warden to name one to be executed from the other two. Finally, the warden relents and says it is C. Prisoner A is happy now, thinking his probability of survival has increased from one-third to half. He then secretly tells the news to B. B is super happy, as he thinks his chance has doubled from one-third to two-thirds! Who is right here?
Remember the Monty Hall problem? This one is just another version of that. In other words, A’s chance of survival remained the same (1/3) even after the new information, whereas B’s chance doubled to two in three.
